Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.439428 0.507721 0.582232 0.669444 0.768600 0.877702 1.006718
2025-08-10 0.320356 0.412233 0.522564 0.664248 0.840751 1.052720 1.325853
2025-08-17 0.251593 0.350967 0.479118 0.655283 0.889762 1.189544 1.600014
2025-08-24 0.205921 0.307287 0.445974 0.647592 0.930797 1.311596 1.858909
2025-08-31 0.168412 0.266967 0.409106 0.626215 0.945916 1.395041 2.068151
2025-09-07 0.153868 0.256871 0.412250 0.659726 1.038876 1.591342 2.448577
2025-09-14 0.130204 0.228766 0.384158 0.641978 1.052459 1.672024 2.665908
2025-09-21 0.111010 0.204717 0.358734 0.624241 1.062361 1.745555 2.875612
2025-09-28 0.095868 0.185109 0.337667 0.610290 1.075439 1.823079 3.095270
2025-10-05 0.087869 0.176833 0.334380 0.625097 1.136045 1.979545 3.451050
2025-10-12 0.083325 0.174185 0.340366 0.656102 1.226129 2.190119 3.909881
2025-10-19 0.077315 0.167844 0.338793 0.673075 1.292699 2.365535 4.321640
2025-10-26 0.070173 0.158482 0.330891 0.678250 1.339881 2.513549 4.701841
2025-11-02 0.062926 0.147892 0.319413 0.675452 1.372222 2.638229 5.051286
2025-11-09 0.055978 0.136878 0.305687 0.666555 1.391773 2.740705 5.367571
2025-11-16 0.050020 0.127130 0.293294 0.658760 1.412243 2.845611 5.694763
2025-11-23 0.043626 0.115380 0.275190 0.637044 1.402721 2.892808 5.916647
2025-11-30 0.042357 0.115617 0.283096 0.671089 1.508977 3.168848 6.591987
2025-12-07 0.037383 0.105989 0.267808 0.653059 1.505422 3.229900 6.854665
2025-12-14 0.033011 0.097183 0.253287 0.635039 1.499928 3.286066 7.110636
2025-12-21 0.029387 0.089753 0.241072 0.620864 1.501218 3.355542 7.397232
2025-12-28 0.027785 0.087575 0.241342 0.635908 1.568413 3.565632 7.984404
2026-01-04 0.027151 0.088026 0.248209 0.667407 1.675321 3.866150 8.777736